ABOperating modelIllustrative case · 13 weeks
Portfolio decision labBehavioral health

The next dollar does not always belong in Marketing.

Acquisition produces demand. Leadership creates enterprise value by tracing that demand through admission, level-of-care capacity, engagement, and expected reimbursement—then funding the actual constraint.

Enter the Month 2 review
An anonymized, representative operating case built from observed ranges. Outputs are projections—not historical client results.
01Diagnose each facility

Three assets. Three different failure classes.

02Make local decisions

Acquisition and operating responses belong to the asset.

03Reconcile the portfolio

Transfers, shared capacity, and total capital stay connected.

01 / Diagnose

One portfolio. Three different constraints.

Month 2 observedMonth 3 projected

A single admissions number hides three different failure classes. Northstar is blocked at entry while total utilization remains below 80%; Harbor has available capacity but loses qualified demand; Waypoint realizes value over a longer care arc.

ANorthstar

Detox → Residential → PHP

Entry constrained
Month 2 admissions90
Total utilization75%
Detox100%
Residential75%
PHP63%

A full Detox entry point constrains patient starts regardless of overall occupancy.

BHarbor

Detox → Residential → PHP

Conversion constrained
Month 2 admissions54
Conversion shock−28%
Detox31%
Residential77%
PHP89%

Demand exists, but fewer qualified opportunities become admissions.

CWaypoint

PHP → IOP → OP

Continuity opportunity
Month 2 admissions30
IOP utilization79%
PHP60%
IOP79%
OP sessions67%

Continuity capacity exists; value is realized across a 90-day arc.

Economic bridgeThe same admission count can produce different census and revenue.
Detox-entry expected episode$16,600Direct Residential entry: $13,000 · no Detox days
Detox $3,600Residential $10,500PHP $2,500
Step-down expected episode$12,100~$4,000/month over 90 days
PHP $2,500IOP $8,571OP $1,029
02 / Decide + reconcile

Decide locally. Reconcile globally.

Facility-first workflow

The model’s recommended plan is loaded. Change any acquisition or operating decision inside an asset, or view the no-action case to see what the quarter costs. The portfolio ledger reconciles transfers, shared routing, and net capital in real time.

A · NorthstarB · HarborC · Waypoint
A
Facility decision room

Northstar

Detox → Residential → PHP

Entry constrained
Observed signal

Detox reaches its hard ceiling while total utilization remains below 80%.

Operating response

Release acquisition pressure and open direct Residential entry.

Month 2 selected admissions90.0Matches no action
Month 3 selected admissions100.0+10.0 vs no action
Projected under selected planMonth 3
78% total use

65% Detox entry · 35% direct Residential

Detox72%−28%
Residential83%+8%
PHP69%+7%

Change shown against Month 2 observed.

Quarter admissions278+10 vs no action
Quarter expected revenue$4.49M+$40K vs no action
Quarter demand lost to constraints3−11 vs no action
Acquisition / quarter expected revenue8.8%$460K total capital
B
Facility decision room

Harbor

Detox → Residential → PHP

Conversion constrained
Observed signal

Qualified demand exists, but the admission conversion layer deteriorates.

Operating response

Repair conversion capability before scaling demand.

Month 2 selected admissions53.7+16.3 vs no action
Month 3 selected admissions52.7+14.6 vs no action
Projected under selected planMonth 3
66% total use
Detox30%−1%
Residential75%−1%
PHP88%−2%

Change shown against Month 2 observed.

Quarter admissions158+31 vs no action
Quarter expected revenue$2.43M+$473K vs no action
Quarter demand lost to constraints1−10 vs no action
Acquisition / quarter expected revenue17%$449K total capital
C
Facility decision room

Waypoint

PHP → IOP → OP

Continuity opportunity
Observed signal

Downstream capacity exists, but value arrives across a 90-day care arc.

Operating response

Protect continuation and judge the cohort on full expected revenue.

Month 2 selected admissions30.0Matches no action
Month 3 selected admissions31.0Matches no action
Projected under selected planMonth 3
72% total use
PHP61%+1%
IOP83%+4%
OP sessions71%+4%

Change shown against Month 2 observed.

Quarter admissions91No material change
Quarter expected revenue$1.16M+$59K vs no action
Quarter demand lost to constraints0No material change
Acquisition / quarter expected revenue10.5%$150K total capital
Model-aligned portfolio

Each facility has a response. The portfolio still balances.

Acquisition capital moves out of the constrained asset and into the asset with restored conversion capacity. Operating capital funds the distinct bottlenecks.

8/8model-aligned moves
Quarter admissions527+41 vs no actionAcross all three facilities
Quarter expected revenue$8.08M+$572K vs no actionSelected quarter total
Quarter demand lost to constraints3−20 vs no actionModeled from unresolved constraints
Annualized expected revenue$32.98M+$3.52M vs no actionMonth 3 expected revenue × 12
Quarter operating trajectoryMonthly admissions · expected revenue
no action selected plan
Total capital deployed$1M
11.5% acquisition cost / expected revenue
Acquisition$932K
Constraint interventions$127K
Net Paid Search change$0/mo

Acquisition and operating intervention are tracked separately, so a budget-neutral transfer stays budget-neutral in the total.

03 / Postmortem

Explain the variance. Preserve the learning.

End-of-quarter view
Model recommendation

Decide locally. Reconcile globally.

Northstar should release acquisition pressure while its entry point is constrained. Harbor can receive that capital only after conversion capacity is restored. Waypoint should be judged on the longer revenue-realization arc.

  1. Move a budget-neutral share of Paid Search from Northstar to Harbor.
  2. Route clinically and financially compatible overflow from Northstar into Harbor’s open capacity.
  3. Fund Northstar’s interim entry response while the 90-day capacity plan runs.
  4. Restore Harbor’s admissions capability before treating demand as the problem.
  5. Protect Waypoint’s step-down continuity and measure value across the full episode.
What leadership should carry forward
6

admissions preserved through compatible internal routing

$59K

modeled downstream value protected at Waypoint

+14

monthly entry capacity next quarter if the long-term plan runs

A 90-day staffing move receives no current-quarter throughput credit. The lag stays visible in the forecast, and the benefit lands in the quarter that earns it.

Method boundary

Every input is stated, editable, and bounded.

Operating architecture
Anonymized representative facility configurations.
Funnel calibration
Observed Web-only monthly ranges; not mapped to these facilities.
Revenue
Expected episode revenue after the collection period—not quarter cash receipts or contribution margin.
Entry mix
65% Detox and 35% direct Residential when Northstar’s direct entry response is active; no direct PHP entry.
Intervention effects
Editable scenario assumptions—not asserted client outcomes.